Variability and Change in Tropical Cyclone Characteristics: Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Drivers and Coastal Impacts

Project objectives:

  1. Quantify how local-scale processes and atmosphere-ocean interactions shape tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in a changing climate (e.g., TC intensity and associated wind-driven ocean mixing, TC precipitation and associated freshwater flux to the ocean, and upper-ocean thermal and salinity conditions)
  2. Determine the primary large-scale physical drivers that control the spatial and temporal statistics of landfalling TCs (e.g., inter-basin and intra-basin ocean temperature gradients, greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, TC steering flow, and TC precursors)
  3. Translate the knowledge developed in 1 and 2, together with sea-level rise projections, into coastal impacts due to the combination of storm surge, heavy precipitation, and strong winds associated with TCs.

Publications:

  • Patricola CM, Cassidy DJ, Klotzbach PJ (2022) Tropical Oceanic Influences on Observed Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(13), e2022GL099354.
  • Sena, A. C. T., Patricola, C. M., & Loring, B. (2022). Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL100267.
  • Danso, D. K., Patricola, C. M., & Bercos-Hickey, E. (2022). The Influence of African Easterly Wave Suppression on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity in a Convection-Permitting Model.  Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL100590. [EOS research spotlight]
  • Klotzbach PJ, Wood KM, Schreck CJ, Bowen SG, Patricola CM, Bell MM (2022) Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity: 1990-2020, Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2021GL095774.
  • Sobel AH, Wing AA, Camargo SJ, Patricola CM, Vecchi G, Lee, C-Y, Tippett M (2021) Tropical Cyclone Frequency. Earth’s Future, 9 (12), e2021EF002275.
  • Huang H, Patricola CM, Collins WD (2021) The Influence of Ocean Coupling on Simulated and Projected Tropical Cyclone Precipitation in the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA Simulations, Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL094801.
  • Bercos-Hickey E, Patricola CM (2021) Anthropogenic Influences on the African Easterly Wave-African Easterly Jet System. Climate Dynamics, 57, 2779–2792.

Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science Early Career Research Program

updated 12/9/2022