Project objectives:
- Quantify how local-scale processes and atmosphere-ocean interactions shape tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in a changing climate (e.g., TC intensity and associated wind-driven ocean mixing, TC precipitation and associated freshwater flux to the ocean, and upper-ocean thermal and salinity conditions)
- Determine the primary large-scale physical drivers that control the spatial and temporal statistics of landfalling TCs (e.g., inter-basin and intra-basin ocean temperature gradients, greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, TC steering flow, and TC precursors)
- Translate the knowledge developed in 1 and 2, together with sea-level rise projections, into coastal impacts due to the combination of storm surge, heavy precipitation, and strong winds associated with TCs.
Publications:
- Kouski, R. H., Patricola, C. M., Bercos-Hickey, E., & Risser M. D. (2025). The Influence of African Easterly Waves on Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Landfall in Large Ensembles. for Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres, in review.
- Forbis, D. C., & Patricola, C. M. (2025). Future Changes in Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Precipitation and Size in Convection-Permitting Regional Model Simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres, in revision.
- Patricola, C. M., Hansen, G. E., & Sena, A. C. T. (2024). The Influence of Climate Variability and Future Climate Change on Atlantic Hurricane Season Length. Geophysical Research Letters, 51(8), e2023GL107881.
- Forbis, D. C., Patricola,C. M., Bercos-Hickey, E. & Gallus, W. A., Jr. (2024). Mid-Century Climate Change Impacts on Tornado-Producing Tropical Cyclones. Weather and Climate Extremes, 44, 100684.
- Danso, D. K., Patricola, C. M., Kurian, J., Chang, P., Klotzbach, P., & Lin, I-I. (2024). Air-sea Coupling Influence on Projected Changes in Tropical Cyclone Events. Weather and Climate Extremes, 43, 100649.
- Sena, A. C. T., Patricola, C. M., Camargo, S. J., & Sobel, A. H. (2024). The Atmospheric Effect of Aerosols on Future Tropical Cyclone Frequency and Precipitation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. Climate Dynamics, 62, 8755–8788.
- Danso, D. K., & Patricola, C. M. (2024). Future Projections of Storm Surge in Hurricane Katrina and Sensitivity to Meteorological Forcing Resolution. Environmental Research Communications, 6, 095018.
- Patricola, C. M., Cassidy, D. J., & Klotzbach, P. J. (2022). Tropical Oceanic Influences on Observed Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(13), e2022GL099354.
- Sena, A. C. T., Patricola, C. M., & Loring, B. (2022). Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL100267.
- Danso, D. K., Patricola, C. M., & Bercos-Hickey, E. (2022). The Influence of African Easterly Wave Suppression on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity in a Convection-Permitting Model. Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL100590. [EOS research spotlight]
- Klotzbach PJ, Wood KM, Schreck CJ, Bowen SG, Patricola CM, Bell MM (2022) Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity: 1990-2020, Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2021GL095774.
- Sobel AH, Wing AA, Camargo SJ, Patricola CM, Vecchi G, Lee, C-Y, Tippett M (2021) Tropical Cyclone Frequency. Earth’s Future, 9 (12), e2021EF002275.
- Huang H, Patricola CM, Collins WD (2021) The Influence of Ocean Coupling on Simulated and Projected Tropical Cyclone Precipitation in the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA Simulations, Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL094801.
- Bercos-Hickey E, Patricola CM (2021) Anthropogenic Influences on the African Easterly Wave-African Easterly Jet System. Climate Dynamics, 57, 2779–2792.
Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science Early Career Research Program
- PI: Patricola (Iowa State University)
- project period: 9/1/2020 – 8/31/2025
- $752,548
- Award number: DE-SC0021109
- Project website: https://climatemodeling.science.energy.gov/projects/variability-and-cha…
updated 6/11/2025