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Peer-reviewed Publications


In review

  • Erickson, N. E., & Patricola, C. M. (2023). Future Projections of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation in CMIP6: Influence of Climate Model Bias. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, in revision.
  • Bercos-Hickey, E., Patricola, C. M., Collins, W. D., & Loring, B. (2023). The Relationship Between African Easterly Waves and Tropical Cyclones in Historical and Future Climates in the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA Simulations.  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, in revision.
  • Bercos-Hickey, E., & Patricola, C. M. (2023). The Effects of African Easterly Wave Suppression by Wave Track on Atlantic Tropical Cyclones. Geophysical Research Letters, in review.
  • Camargo, S. J., Murakami, H., Bloemendaal, N., Chand, S., Deshpande, M. S., Dominguez-Sarmiento, C., González-Alemán, J. J., Knutson, T. R., Lin, I.-I., Moon, I-J., Patricola, C. M., Reed, K. A., Roberts, M., Scoccimarro, E., Tam, C. Y., Wallace, E., Wu, L., Yamada, Y., Zhang, W., & Zhao, H. (2023). Climate change and tropical cyclones: An update. Tropical Cyclone Research Review, in review.


  • Patricola CM, Cassidy DJ, Klotzbach PJ (2022) Tropical Oceanic Influences on Observed Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(13), e2022GL099354.
  • Patricola CM, Wehner MF, Bercos-Hickey E, Maciel FV, May C, Mak M, Yip O, Roche A, Leal S (2022) Future Changes in Extreme Precipitation over the San Francisco Bay Area: Dependence on Atmospheric River and Extratropical Cyclone Events, Weather and Climate Extremes, 36, 100440.
  • Sena, A. C. T., Patricola, C. M., & Loring, B. (2022). Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL100267.
  • Danso, D. K., Patricola, C. M., & Bercos-Hickey, E. (2022). The Influence of African Easterly Wave Suppression on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity in a Convection-Permitting Model.  Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL100590. [EOS research spotlight]
  • Klotzbach PJ, Wood KM, Schreck CJ, Bowen SG, Patricola CM, Bell MM (2022) Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity: 1990-2020, Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2021GL095774.
  • Bercos-Hickey E, O’Brien TA, Wehner MF, Zhang L, Patricola CM, Huang H, Risser MD (2022) Anthropogenic Contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave.  Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL099396.
  • Risser MD, Collins WD, Wehner MF, O’Brien TA, Paciorek C, O’Brien JP, Patricola CM, Huang H, Ullrich P, Loring B (2022) A method for detection and attribution of regional precipitation change using Granger causality: Application to the United States historical record. Climate Dynamics, 60, 705-741.


  • Sobel AH, Wing AA, Camargo SJ, Patricola CM, Vecchi G, Lee, C-Y, Tippett M (2021) Tropical Cyclone Frequency. Earth’s Future, 9 (12), e2021EF002275.
  • Huang H, Patricola CM, Collins WD (2021) The Influence of Ocean Coupling on Simulated and Projected Tropical Cyclone Precipitation in the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA Simulations, Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL094801.
  • Bercos-Hickey E, Patricola CM (2021) Anthropogenic Influences on the African Easterly Wave-African Easterly Jet System. Climate Dynamics, 57, 2779–2792.
  • Bercos-Hickey E, Patricola CM, Gallus WA, Jr. (2021) Anthropogenic Influences on Tornadic Storms. Journal of Climate, 34 (22), 8989–9006.
  • Huang H, Patricola CM, Bercos-Hickey E, Zhou Y, Rhoades AM, Risser MD, Collins WD (2021) Sources of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictability of Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation in the Western United States. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126, e2020JD034053.
  • Huang H, Patricola CM, Winter JM, Osterberg EC, Mankin JS (2021) Rise in Northeast US Extreme Precipitation Caused by Ocean Variability and Climate Change. Weather and Climate Extremes, 33, 100351.
  • Fu D, Chang P, Patricola CM, Saravanan R, Beck H (2021) Central American mountains inhibit eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. Nature Communications, 12, 4422.
  • Kurian J, Li P, Chang P, Patricola CM, Small J (2021) Impact of the Benguela Coastal Low-Level Jet on the Southeast Tropical Atlantic SST Bias in a Regional Ocean Model. Climate Dynamics, 56, 2773-2800.
  • Lin I-I, Rogers RF, Huang H-C, Liao Y-C, Yu J-Y, Patricola CM, Zhang JA, Herndon D, Chang Y-T, Pun I-F, Lien C-C (2021) A Tale of Two Rapidly-Intensifying Supertyphoons: Hagibis (2019) and Haiyan (2013). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, E1645–E1664.
  • Hagos S, Leung LRP, Garuba OP, Patricola CM (2021) Influence of Background Divergent Moisture Flux on the Frequency of North Pacific Atmospheric Rivers. Journal of Climate, 34, 6129–6139.
  • Zhou Y, O'Brien TA, Ullrich PA, Collins WD, Patricola CM, Rhoades AM (2021) Uncertainties in Atmospheric River Life Cycles by Detection Algorithms: Climatology and Variability. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126, e2020JD033711.
  • Risser MD, Wehner MF, O'Brien JP, Patricola CM, O'Brien TA, Collins WD, Paciorek CJ, Huang H (2021) Detection and attribution for observed precipitation over the contiguous United States - Part I: quantifying the influence of natural climate variability on in situ measurements of seasonal total and extreme daily precipitation. Climate Dynamics, 56, 3205-3230.
  • Liu X, Ma X, Chang P, Jia Y, Fu D, Xu G, Wu L, Saravanan R, Patricola CM (2021) Ocean Fronts and Eddies Remotely Forcing Atmospheric Rivers and Heavy Precipitation. Nature Communications, 12, 1268.


  • Patricola CM, O’Brien JP, Risser MD, Rhoades AM, O’Brien TA, Ullrich PA, Stone DA, Collins WD (2020) Maximizing ENSO as a Source of Western US Hydroclimate Predictability. Climate Dynamics, 54, 351-372.
  • Balaguru K, Patricola CM, Hagos SM, Leung LR, Dong L (2020) Enhanced Predictability of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Activity using the ENSO Longitude Index.  Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL088849.
  • Rhoades AM, Jones AD, Srivastava A, Huang H, O'Brien TA, Patricola CM, Ullrich PA, Wehner MF, Zhou Y (2020) The Shifting Scales of Western US Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL089096.
  • Gutowski Jr WJ, Hall A, Leung LR, O’Brien TA, Patricola CM, Ullrich PA, Coauthors (2020) The ongoing need for high-resolution regional climate models: Process-understanding and stakeholder information. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101 (5): E664–E683.
  • O’Brien, TA, Payne AE, Shields CA, Rutz J and Coauthors (2020) Detection Uncertainty Matters for Understanding Atmospheric Rivers.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101, E790-E796.
  • O'Brien TA, Risser MD, Loring B, Elbashandy AA, Krishnan H, Johnson J, Patricola CM, O’Brien JP, Mahesh A, Prabhat, Ramirez SA, Rhoades AM, Charn A, Díaz HI, Collins WD (2020) Detection of Atmospheric Rivers with Inline Uncertainty Quantification: TECA-BARD v1.0. Geoscientific Model Development13(12), 6131–6148.


  • Walsh KJE, Camargo SJ, Knutson TR, Kossin JP, Lee T-C, Murakami H, Patricola CM (2019) Tropical cyclones and climate change.  Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 8, 240-250.
  • Fu D, Chang P, Patricola CM, Saravanan R (2019) High Resolution Tropical Channel Model Simulations of Tropical Cyclone Climatology and Intraseasonal-to-Interannual Variability. Journal of Climate, 32, 7871-7895.
  • Foltz G and Coauthors (2019) The Tropical Atlantic Observing System. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6 (206), 1-36.
  • Hsu W-C, Patricola CM, Chang P (2019) The Impact of Climate Model Sea Surface Temperature Biases on Tropical Cyclone Simulations. Climate Dynamics, 53 (1-2), 173-192.
  • O’Brien JP, O’Brien TA, Patricola CM, Wang S-Y (2019) Metrics for Understanding Large-scale Controls of Multivariate Temperature and Precipitation Variability. Climate Dynamics, 53, 3805-3823.
  • Vahmani P, Jones AD, Patricola CM (2019) Interacting implications of climate change, population dynamics, and urban heat mitigation for future exposure to heat extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (8), 084051.


  • Patricola CM, Wehner MF (2018) Anthropogenic Influences on Major Tropical Cyclone Events. Nature, 563, 339-346.
  • Williams IN, Patricola CM (2018) Diversity of ENSO Events Unified by Convective Threshold Sea Surface Temperature:  A Nonlinear ENSO Index, Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 9236-9244.
  • Timmermans B., Patricola CM, Wehner MF (2018) Simulation and Analysis of Hurricane-Driven Extreme Wave Climate Under Two Ocean Warming Scenarios. Oceanography, 31(2), 88-99.
  • Patricola CM, Saravanan R, Chang P (2018) The Response of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones to Suppression of African Easterly Waves. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 471-479.
  • Patricola CM, Camargo SJ, Klotzbach P, Saravanan R, Chang P (2018) The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones. Journal of Climate, 31(14), 5395-5416.


  • Patricola CM, Saravanan R, Chang P (2017) A Teleconnection Between Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Eastern and Central North Pacific Tropical Cyclones. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 1167-1174. [EOS research spotlight]
  • Patricola CM, Chang P (2017) Structure and Dynamics of the Benguela Low-Level Coastal Jet. Climate Dynamics, 49, 2765-2788.
  • Fu D, Chang P, Patricola CM (2017) Impact of Central American Gap-Winds on Intrabasin Variability of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones During ENSO. Scientific Reports, 7, 1658.
  • Pall P, Patricola CM, Wehner MF, Stone DA, Paciorek C, Collins WD (2017) Diagnosing Conditional Anthropogenic Contributions to Heavy Colorado Rainfall in September 2013. Weather and Climate Extremes, 17, 1-6.


  • Patricola CM, Chang P, Saravanan R (2016) Degree of simulated suppression of Atlantic tropical cyclones modulated by flavour of El Niño. Nature Geoscience, 9, 155–160.
  • Zuidema P and Coauthors (2016) Challenges and Prospects for Reducing Coupled Climate Model SST Biases in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans: The U.S. CLIVAR Eastern Tropical Oceans Synthesis Working Group. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97, 2305–2328.


  • Patricola CM, Chang P, Saravanan R (2015) Impact of Atlantic SST and High Frequency Atmospheric Variability on the 1993 and 2008 Midwest Floods: Regional Climate Model Simulations of Extreme Climate Events. Climatic Change, 129, 397–411.
  • Walsh KJE and Coauthors (2015) Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96, 997–1017.
  • Daloz AS and Coauthors (2015) Cluster Analysis of Downscaled and Explicitly Simulated North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks. Journal of Climate, 28, 1333–1361.


  • Patricola CM, Saravanan R, Chang P (2014) The Impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Mode on Seasonal Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity. Journal of Climate, 27, 5311–5328.
  • Liu Y, Chiang JCH, Chou C, Patricola CM (2014) Atmospheric teleconnection mechanisms of extratropical North Atlantic SST influence on Sahel rainfall. Climate Dynamics, 43, 2797–2811
  • Xu Z, Li M, Patricola CM, Chang P (2014) Oceanic Origin of Southeast Tropical Atlantic Biases. Climate Dynamics, 43, 2915–2930.


  • Patricola CM, Cook KH (2013) Mid-twenty-first century climate change in the Central United States. Part II: Climate change processes. Climate Dynamics, 40, 569–583.
  • Patricola CM, Cook KH (2013) Mid-twenty-first century warm season climate change in the Central United States. Part I: Regional and global model predictions. Climate Dynamics, 40, 551–568.

2012 and earlier

  • Patricola CM, Li M, Xu Z, Chang P, Saravanan R, Hsieh J-S (2012) An Investigation of Tropical Atlantic Bias in a High-Resolution Coupled Regional Climate Model. Climate Dynamics, 39, 2443–2463.
  • Patricola CM, Cook KH (2011) Sub-Saharan Northern African climate at the end of the twenty-first century: Forcing factors and climate change processes. Climate Dynamics, 37, 1165–1188.
  • Patricola CM, Cook KH (2010) Northern African climate at the end of the twenty-first century: An integrated application of regional and global climate models. Climate Dynamics, 35, 193–212.
  • Cook KH, Vizy EK, Launer ZS, Patricola CM (2008) Springtime intensification of the Great Plains low-level jet and Midwest precipitation in GCM simulations of the twenty-first century. Journal of Climate, 21, 6321–6340.
  • Patricola CM, Cook KH (2008) Atmosphere/Vegetation Feedbacks: A mechanism for abrupt climate change over northern Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D18102.
  • Patricola CM, Cook KH (2007) Dynamics of the West African Monsoon under Mid-Holocene precessional forcing: Regional climate model simulations. Journal of Climate, 20, 694–716.

Book Chapters

  • Lin I-I, Camargo SJ, Patricola CM, Boucharel J, Chang S, Klotzbach P, Chan J, Wang B, Chang P, Li T, Jin F-F (2020) Chapter 17: ENSO and Tropical Cyclones. In ENSO in a Changing Climate. (eds McPhaden M, Santoso A, Cai W) AGU Monograph Series. ISBN: 978-1-119-54812-6.
  • Wehner MF, Zarzycki C, Patricola CM (2019) Estimating the Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity as the Climate Changes. In: Collins J., Walsh K. (eds) Hurricane Risk. Hurricane Risk, vol 1. Springer, Cham, 235-260.

Climate Assessment Reports

  • Contributing Author: Seneviratne, S. I., X. Zhang and Coauthors (2022) Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, 51 O. Yelekçi, R. Yu and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.
  • Contributing Author: Collins M and Coauthors (2013) Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Other Publications

  • Patricola CM (2018) Tropical Cyclones Are Becoming Sluggish. Nature News & Views, 558, 36-37.
  • Feng Y, Negron-Juarez RI, Patricola CM, Collins WD, Uriarte M, Hall JS, Clinton N, Chambers JQ (2018) Rapid remote sensing assessment of impacts from Hurricane Maria on forests of Puerto Rico. PeerJ Preprints 6:e26597v1.
  • Patricola CM, Chang P, Saravanan R, Li M, Hsieh J-S (2011) An Investigation of the Tropical Atlantic Bias Problem Using a High-Resolution Coupled Regional Climate Model, U.S. CLIVAR Variations, 9 (2), 9-12.
  • Patricola CM, Cook KH (2007) The African Humid Period: Evidence for abrupt climate change in northern Africa. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Focus on Africa, 2pp.

updated 3/15/2023