Accurately predicting tropical cyclones (TCs) and their associated hazards depends not only on atmospheric and oceanic conditions but also on how the ocean and atmosphere interact. One of the biggest challenges in TC forecasting is capturing the complex exchange of momentum, heat, and moisture between the ocean surface and the atmosphere — especially under the extreme wind conditions found in powerful TCs.
Our research focuses on improving how these air-sea interactions are represented in numerical weather prediction models. We use coupled mesoscale ensemble models — which simulate the atmosphere, ocean, and waves together — to evaluate and refine how energy and moisture are transferred across the air-sea interface. By reducing uncertainties in these processes, particularly at high wind speeds, we aim to enhance the accuracy and reliability of TC intensity and structure forecasts.