Despite major advancements in short-term tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting, predicting storm activity beyond one week remains a significant scientific challenge. Our research tackles this gap by using cutting-edge global model simulations that can resolve individual storms and the convective processes that drive them.
By analyzing these high-resolution, TC-resolving and convection-permitting simulations, we investigate the complex, multi-scale interactions — from large-scale atmospheric waves to local storm dynamics — that influence the formation, intensity, and movement of tropical cyclones on subseasonal timescales (2–6 weeks). Understanding these processes is key to improving early warning systems and long-range forecasts, which are critical for disaster preparedness and climate resilience.