As we have for the last three election cycles, the Department of Political Science is conducting another series of polls around the 2020 Iowa Caucuses. The Caucuses are a uniquely Iowan political event and provide an opportunity for Iowa State University to highlight the research and outreach of the Department of Political Science and other units across the University.
The survey was a 6-wave panel of likely Iowa Caucus attendees. The survey was conducted monthly from September until February, re-interviewing some of the same respondents in each wave. This will provide a unique selling point versus virtually all other surveys of the Iowa Caucuses. Most surveys draw a fresh sample of respondents, which means they cannot effectively say anything about how the electorate changes between the polls. A panel design, in contrast, can provide information about who is changing their minds and how support shifts between candidates. Additionally, this survey was the most accurate pre-Caucus survey for 2020.
The September and October waves have been completed. In addition to the media coverage the results have received, the September data were featured in the recent piece, "Who the Democrats in Early-Primary States Don't Want to See Nominated" published on fivehtirtyeight.com. A second piece "What Iowa Voters’ Second-Choice Picks Can Tell Us" was published in December.
Funding Organizations:
Vice President for Research, Iowa State University
College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Iowa State University